Thursday, October 15, 2015

Number of "refugees" in 2015 still following exponential curve

I plugged in data from the number of arrivals of "refugees" obtained from the UNHCR site on Mediterranean arrivals in Excel. It is surprising how well you can fit an exponential curve to these data. The fitted curve has as equation y = 3403 exp (0.4556 x), with y the number of "refugees" and x the number of the month, January 2015 being 1.

  • Jan: 5546
  • Feb: 7343
  • Mar: 10184
  • Apr: 29441
  • May: 40117
  • Jun: 53987
  • Jul: 75483
  • Aug: 130837
  • Sep: 187384

The only good news is that exponential extrapolations are rarely ever valid, as it would imply December 2016 would see 191 million "refugees" and a cumulative from Jan 2015 - Dec 2016 of 521 million. Data from 2014 showed a decrease in the winter months.

The bad news is IF this trend DOES continue long enough, waiting for the next elections (2017 in Germany) it will be too late.

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